From the Founder: how to beat...The state of the industry
The job market in VFX is currently at a standstill. Yes, there are some jobs, but in general, studios are tightening their belts due to a lack of work as a result of the current writers and actors strike. Experienced VFX artists, junior artists, and graduates are all feeling the effects of the near 100 days of picketing. But this is not the only factor at play right now.
New technologies have created friction between studios and the trained talented artists they’ve historically relied on to create their visuals. Of course, the biggest of these is the plethora of AI tools that have emerged in recent years. And, honestly, some of them are pretty good. Some are ridiculously good. Which has of course led artists to ask themselves, “can I be replaced by intelligent software?”. The short answer is maybe. The long answer can be found by looking back in history.
We’ve been here before: lessons from CG’s history
When CG first launched, it kind of sucked. But, like anything, it began to improve. Terminator 2 changed our understanding of what was possible. We all became believers. As impressed as we were, it was still early days for CG. It took several other films including Jurassic Park, Titanic, and The Matrix to really cement the idea that computers were the future. Did these changes inspire set builders, puppeteers, film extras and prop masters to push open that tenth floor window? In some cases, yes.
Just ask Phil Tippett. He was tasked with creating stop motion dinosaurs for Jurassic Park when Steve “Spaz” Williams “accidentally” left a CG T-Rex run cycle playing on his computer that a group of producers just so happened to see. Unsurprisingly, they saw it and asked, “what's this?”. The rest is history. Did the arrival of Computer Graphics run Tippett Studio out of business? No! Phil did what any seasoned professional would do–he shifted gears, learned CG, and became part of the future (and a legend).
The industry underwent several twists, turns and huge leaps of technological change over the next decade. One of those technologies was Motion Capture (Mo-Cap). We've all seen the actors wearing their black lycra suits with the little balls attached. Their motion is tracked in 3D space at every major joint. The data is tidied up and transferred to digital humans that inherit the motion perfectly. Mo-Cap has also been used successfully on horses, dogs and a few other animals. However, you can't Mo-Cap a dinosaur or a dragon. They just don't make suits that fit them! Plus, they’d eat the whole craft services table in three seconds…
I was an Animator in those early days. Were my days as an animator numbered? Was I soon to be obsolete? Not even a little bit.
Entering a “new” normal
So where are we now? Twenty years later, hand-keyed animation still dominates the world of TV and Film. Hundreds of animated children's shows, most creatures, and human activities that can't be Mo-Capped, are all painstakingly keyed by talented animators. Of course, Jim Cameron figured out how to Mo-Cap underwater, but he's likely an alien so that doesn't count.
With all of that said, AI is something different. It has been around for quite a while, but it really is hitting it’s stride these days. There are thousands of apps, and studios, publishers, music producers and software companies are embracing them in a big way. Our industry is already feeling the effects. Jobs are being lost and lawsuits are popping up for copyright infringement. Artist’s styles are being reproduced without any compensation. I fear we have only seen the first wave of impact on our industry. AI will ripple through many other industries as well. Musicians, writers, filmmakers, coders and a host of others will feel the direct impact of smart code doing good work at a fraction of the cost. And this is part of the Writers strike conversation—they can see their livelihoods threatened and are justified in worrying about their future. I feel for all those affected now and down the road. Never mind the concerns for AI’s impact on warfare. Skynet? Nothing is impossible. Cameron again…hmm.
The role of streams and strikes
Until recently, there was never a time in history when there were so many people working countless hours on as many shows and films. A few years ago people would say, “I'm going home to watch Netflix,” because that was the only true streaming service with any good content. Now, we have more than a dozen quality services with hundreds, if not thousands, of shows to choose from. These shows are not made by computers. They are made on the backs of talented hard working crews in the field and studios across this planet.
The writers and actors strike is affecting projects across the globe, but nowhere more than in the US and Canada, as the unions involved feed the industry on both sides of the border substantially. Looking back again, writers' strikes are nothing new. There have been no less than five in the past thirty five years. In general terms, they were resolved within 90 – 100 days. We are at 100 days as of this week. Experienced artists have seen this before. Some are well prepared financially to wait it out. Others are senior enough that they have taken an early retirement.
That's all well and good for experienced folks, but what about the new emerging artists?
What’s next: an opportunity in disguise
You're in CG school, or just finished, and are faced with not only a flat job market, but the experienced artists that have been laid off are in line ahead of you. Depressing, right? Money wasted? Things will never recover? Time to panic? Not at all. This is an opportunity in disguise.
The industry has pushed the pause button. There's a window of opportunity right now that you must climb through.
Getting trained and making it into this industry is like war. You have worked hard at a good school and trained yourself to the best of your ability. You have a killer portfolio and a wealth of cutting edge knowledge. These are your weapons. All of a sudden, both sides call for a truce. No swords are being swung, or arrows being launched from composite longbows. All is quiet. What should you do? Bust out God of War until things heat up again? No! This is a time to sharpen your weapons. Build a catapult and fill new vats with boiling oil. Find a horse so you're not walking when things get back to it.
In short, this is a chance to upskill. Make yourself even more valuable. Learn Houdini, UE5, Vellum, Ziva, etc.. Once the strike is resolved- which will happen as both sides are suffering- there will be a period of stoking the furnaces and getting ducks in rows. That is, there will be lots of opportunities for you (if you’re ready).
My guess is that the strike will be resolved in late October or mid November 2023, and the industry will be running on all cylinders by early in the new year. In that time, you can do great things to put yourself at the top of your game and make it impossible for studios not to notice you. Take a long deep breath because there are hundreds of projects waiting in the wings for a green light. Say goodbye to your life for a while when that begins, and remember it's what you wished for when you're working 80 hours a week as a junior CG artist. Good luck!
- Scott.
